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If you wish to estimate the likelihood of winning of an underdog of greater than 14.5 points, the formula is e^(-0.14324*s)/(1+e^(-0.14324*s)), where s is the point spread. To convert any chance underneath 50% to a fair money line, the components is 100*(1-p)/p, where p is the likelihood of successful. To transform any probability over 50% to a fair money line, the components is -100*p/(1-p).

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